Indonesia plans to implement B40 in January
In that case, prices may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke states
B40 will require extra 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI states
Malaysia palm oil benchmark at highest since mid-2022
India might withdraw import tax trek amidst inflation, Mistry says
(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard rate)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however costs are expected to remain raised due to scheduled growth of the nation's biodiesel mandate, industry analysts said.
The palm oil standard cost in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to minimize fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric tons compared with an of just over a million lots this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study firm Oil World, stated he anticipates Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million heaps next year after a 2.5 million load drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is forecast to improve, provide from elsewhere and of other veggie oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip slightly next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million heaps in 2024.
"We would need a recovery in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The cost rise in palm oil in the past 7 weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million heaps will be needed for B40 application, wearing down export supply.
The current palm oil premium has already triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric heap in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.
"Sentiment right now is red-hot and exceptionally bullish, we need to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian consumer items business Godrej International.
He anticipated the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to
consider postponing
B40 execution on issue about its effect on food customers.
Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import task hike
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, but Biodiesel
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